The world is watching as Iran faces intense internal strife, but few realize how deeply this turmoil could reshape global geopolitics—especially for Russia. And this is the part most people miss: Vladimir Putin's strategic goal extends far beyond Ukraine; he aims to forge a different kind of global order, and Iran plays a critical role in that vision.
Despite the ongoing, often deadly protests that are shaking Iran’s government to its core, the ripple effects are felt strongly in Moscow. Iran remains a key partner for Russia, not just economically, but militarily and strategically. For Putin, preserving this alliance is of utmost importance, and the stakes could not be higher.
While Vladimir Putin has yet to publicly comment on the protests engulfing Iran, all indications suggest he’s watching developments very closely. Experts argue that any move toward regime change in Iran would be highly troublesome for Putin. Some believe it could even usher in what the Kremlin fears most—an upheaval that might drastically weaken its regional influence.
Iran’s leaders are desperately trying to manage the mounting unrest, which has resulted in brutal crackdowns. According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, government forces have reportedly killed over 2,500 protesters—a tragic figure that underscores the severity of the crisis. The situation is so volatile that even former US President Donald Trump has suggested the possibility of military intervention, further complicating international responses.
Mario Bikarski, a senior risk analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, explained to CNBC, "Historically, Iran protests have been observed cautiously by Russia, which hoped the regime could withstand internal and external pressures. But now, the pressure is intensifying, and it’s fueled not only by domestic unrest but also by external influences."
So far, Russia’s official stance has been remarkably muted. The only prominent statement came from Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who on Wednesday implicitly criticized the United States, emphasizing that the Russia-Iran relationship is resilient and unlikely to be altered by external meddling. "I don't think any third party can fundamentally change the relationship between Moscow and Tehran," he asserted.
However, this position is increasingly difficult to sustain, especially when viewed through the lens of recent geopolitical upheavals. Over the past year, Russia’s focus on the Ukraine conflict has divided its attention, while some of its closest alliances—like Syria and Venezuela—have been challenged or shaken.
The rapid overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria earlier this year, after years of Moscow’s military support, demonstrated how fragile regional alliances can be. Russia still maintains military bases and trade ties there, but the political landscape has shifted, and Damascus has engaged with Russia’s adversaries as well.
Similarly, in Latin America, the US’s bold capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela has jolted Russia’s influence. Despite Venezuela’s strategic importance to Putin—especially regarding military support and access—America’s intervention revealed vulnerabilities. The supposed sophisticated military equipment provided by Russia, including its famed air defense systems, proved ineffective during the US operation. Questions about whether these systems were properly set up or if incompetence played a role persist.
While Syria and Venezuela pose significant challenges, they are manageable for Moscow. Iran, however, is an entirely different matter. As a crucial strategic partner not solely based on trade volume but on shared military interests—such as Iran’s provision of military equipment and covert support—Iran’s stability directly impacts Russia’s regional ambitions. For instance, Iran has supplied and helped Russia develop drone capabilities, notably with the Shahed drones used extensively in Ukraine.
More profound than these military ties are Russia’s broader geopolitical aspirations. According to Anna Borshchevskaya of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Putin’s overarching goal is to create a world where Russia stands at the center—an alternative to the liberal international order—where great powers act without restraint in their respective regions.
This vision aligns with Iran’s current stance and leadership, making their alliance particularly vital. Despite a comprehensive strategic partnership signed last year, formal defense commitments remain limited. Russia also opposes Iran developing nuclear weapons—a stance illustrated during Iran’s recent conflict with Israel and the US, where Russia watched from the sidelines.
A regime change in Tehran could have unpredictable consequences. The recent protests that erupted over economic hardship and corruption have grown into broader opposition to Iran’s oppressive religious government. These grievances could lead Iran to seek different international allies—possibly even turning away from Russia to forge new relationships. That’s why, for Putin, the worst-case scenario is Iran shifting toward Western influences, potentially marginalizing Russia’s role in the region.
Anna Borshchevskaya highlights that while Iran remains a regional power unlikely to fully break ties with Russia, any move by Iran’s future government to develop closer ties with the West remains Moscow’s biggest fear — a geopolitical upheaval that could undermine decades of strategic planning.
So, as Iran’s internal crisis intensifies, the question remains: Will Russia be able to maintain its influence in Tehran? Or is this the beginning of a future where Russia’s regional and global dreams are pushed even further out of reach? It’s a topic worth pondering—and even more worth discussing. How do you see the future of Iran’s relationship with Russia unfolding? Will they remain allies, or could internal unrest reshape the larger regional balance? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
